It’s not easy to avoid the chopping block when it comes to primetime television.
Whether it’s a returning series or a new show, livelihood is purely a numbers game, and when the numbers go south, cancellation is not far behind.
14 shows about to get the axe »
TV by the Numbers runs a series of articles outlining which shows from the major networks are trending downwards using what it calls the “Renew/Cancel Index” — a ratio that takes into account a show’s 18-49 age group ratings relative to the performance of other shows. Per the site, the specifics behind the numbers are as follows:
“The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).”
In general, a score less than 1 puts a show at considerable risk of cancellation, while a score greater than 1 puts a show in safe territory. Shows approaching 2 on the scale are more or less untouchable — pretty much assured for an early renewal — while shows trending around 0.5 are generally in big, big trouble as networks decide what to cancel.
Using TV by the Numbers’ Renew/Cancel Index, here are the shows from each of the five major broadcast networks — ABC, Fox, CBS, NBC, and The CW — that seem destined for the chopping block.
1. "Betrayal" (ABC)
Of all the major networks, ABC’s lineup is looking likely to take the award for most cancellations this season. And following ABC’s three shows that have already been cancelled — Lucky 7, Killer Women, The Assets — no other show on the network comes in as low on the Renew/Cancel Index as Betrayal,which finished the season at 0.48.
A new drama that began airing September 29, Betrayal tells the story of photographer Sara Hanley. She begins an affair with Jack McAllister, a lawyer from a powerful family, and the series follows the complications that arise when a court case pits the two against one another. Luckily for Betrayal, the viewership numbers didn’t trend aggressively downwards, instead holding firm around 3 million, but the viewership for its finale — 3.31 million — doesn’t lead to much hope for a second season.
2. "Once Upon A Time In Wonderland" (ABC)
Next on the chopping block at ABC is Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, which currently sits at 0.55 on TV by the Numbers’ index, nearly unchanged from its already precarious spot earlier in the fall. A spinoff of ABC’s popular Once Upon a Time, this series takes place in present-day Wonderland and is part of the same universe as the original show.
Unfortunately, the eight-episode season did not draw viewers in nearly as much as Once Upon a Time, showing a consistent decline through the first season. With four more episodes to go, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland’s most recent episode pulled in 3.27 million viewers, making it the second least-watched episode of the series and a far cry from the 5.82 million viewers who tuned in for the premiere in October.
3. "The Neighbors" (ABC)
The Neighbors scores a 0.59 on the index — slightly higher than where it was in the fall — and it appears increasingly unlikely that the comedy will be renewed for a third season. Now in its second season, The Neighbors is a sci-fi sitcom about a family that relocates to a gated community in New Jersey only to find that it is populated entirely by aliens awaiting instruction to return home. Viewer numbers have shown a distinct drop throughout the second season, with the most recent episode (on March 7) earning the lowest ratings of the entire series at 3.6 million.
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